|They'd probably beat me.|
That's intermediate strategy, of course, and advanced strategy can try to outsmart people playing pot odds.
But the lottery doesn't outsmart anyone. It's just straight odds. Let's explore that in terms of pot odds.
Given that the jackpot odds in Mega Millions is around 1:176,000,000, if the pot is over 176,000,000, then a $1 investment is actually the correct move - because you are betting properly against pot odds. Over $352,000,000, and a $2 investment is appropriate.
If you folded a winning hand in poker when pot odds were in your favor, you would usually be a fool. Why be a fool in the lottery? Don't listen to the naysayers who insist this is a "bad investment". They can't do math.
For $640 million (the current estimated pot), up to $3.60 is justified.
What the heck, I'll round up and buy 2 tickets with the megaplier for a total of $4. I bet it gets higher than $640M given the crazy lines at all the stores.
Hmm. Maybe the lottery can outsmart me after all!
Besides, like Tenkar says, someone might be able to buy the D&D license from Hasbro for that kind of money.
Good luck in the drawing!